Blue Wave: Point Break

Well, here we are folks. Usually, I have quite a bit more to say after an election than before one, and I suspect this year will certainly be no exception. Nevertheless, I’ve been thinking particularly hard about this one, and that’s really saying something. This election is, in many ways, an enigma. A sizable amount of uncertainty still lingers as we pull into the final straightaway. Will there be a Blue Wave? Will the Republicans hold the Senate? Are the polls accurate? Is that Republican from Virginia’s 5^th District really into Bigfoot porn? Is it weird that I’ve probably lost the most sleep over that last question? Let’s tackle some of this. I’ll be brief—I want to save up some of my election-analysis-babble for the days after this all goes down. But here’s where my thoughts have been the past few weeks: Yes, I think there will be a sizable (but not tsunami-like) Blue Wave. Yes, I think the Democrats will take the House. No, I think they have almost no shot at taking the Senate. And yes, I think the polls are generally accurate—insofar as most races will be decided within the polls’ margins of error.

Take a look at the RealClearPolitics House election page. You’ll see that, at its core, the race for the House is actually quite close. Adding up all the “safe,” “likely,” and “lean,” seats for each party only separates the Democrats from the GOP by 5 seats. It’s when you look at those tossups that it becomes clear why the Dems are the odds-on favorites to take over: 29 of those 32 seats are currently in Republican hands. (This is to say nothing of the fact that 10 of the 16 “lean” Dem seats are currently in Republican hands.) Of those 29 tossups, nine are open, meaning there is no incumbent. This is usually the first sign of a wave election—members of the majority party see the writing on the wall and decide it’s time to retire or abandon ship. Republicans had a whopping 26 such retirements this year, a total that rises to an astonishing 39 if you count every Republican who left their seat to run for another office. Compare this with only 18 open Democratic seats, and it’s obvious which party had a disadvantage out of the gate.

But why, you ask, can there still be so much uncertainty? Well, first of all, read this nice little blurb by my idol Sean Trende if you want the expert’s take. And I’ll shamelessly parrot some of his points here, too. Basically, at least as it pertains to House races, we’re looking at polls that come disproportionately from one source—The New York Times/Siena College partnership. Do I think their polls are high-quality? Without question, but that’s not really the point. Any pollster, however prescient and scientific they may be, is still guessing as to what the electorate that shows up to vote is going to look like. If most of the polls we refer to are making the same guess, and that guess turns out to be even a few percentage points off, then we end up getting the whole thing wrong. That’s why it’s always good to look at polls in the aggregate.

Still, to my mind, the question isn’t really if the Democrats will take the House. It’s just a matter of how large their majority is going to be. Give them half of those tossups, and they have a razor-thin majority. Give them all 32, and they have a comfortable one. My guess—this is me going on record—is that the Democrats will probably win around two-thirds of those tossups. Generally, in a wave or wave-like election, there is a late break toward the winning party by undecided and independent voters. I remember there being a similar amount of polling uncertainty going into the 2014 midterms, only for there to be a massive break toward the Republicans as they took the Senate and expanded their House majority. Look for a healthy—but, again, not quite tsunami-like—break toward the Dems this next Tuesday. Keep in mind, too, that when this kind of break happens, the effect will be seen across all races, meaning the tide could spill over into some of those “lean” and even “likely” Republican seats. If you want an example, those of you watching this election from Virginia like me should take a look at the races in the 5^th, 7^th, and 2^nd Districts. If the 5^th goes blue, it’s a definite blue ripple. If the 7^th flips, it’s a wave. And if the 2^nd switches hands, we’re in full-on bloodbath mode. (The 10^th is a foregone conclusion already.)

As for the Senate, the Democrats have almost no hope, in spite of the fact that they will probably flip a seat, or even two. Their problem is that the map is really skewed in the GOP’s favor. In fact, it may just be the most unfair Senate map of all time. The Republicans have just 9 seats to defend, only one of which is in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton, while the Democrats are playing defense across a staggering 24 seats, 10 of which are in states that voted for Trump. Talk about a handicap. I’d say given these conditions and the current state of the polls, the Republicans will probably end up with 52 or 53 seats when all is said and done. I actually think Kyrsten Sinema will pull off the major feat of becoming the first Democrat to represent Arizona in the Senate in 30 years, but it won’t matter when the GOP picks up seats in North Dakota (almost certain) and Missouri (call it a hunch). The only other pickup opportunity the Democrats have is Dean Heller, the lone blue state Republican in Nevada. Call me crazy, but I see him eking out a win a la 2012. And never, never sleep on Lex Luthor…I mean, Rick Scott.

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to think of it as 'world optimization'." - Lex Luthor

 I could give you another meaty paragraph about governor’s races, but I’m already approaching 1100 words so I’ll just say this: the Democrats will make some sizable gains here. This will especially come into play come 2020, when we have our next census and state legislatures start drawing new Congressional districts (this is actually quite important, so don’t think I’m throwing this away because it doesn’t matter).

And now, for my endorsements: I’ll be voting for Tim Kaine for Senate for the second time, which blows my mind. He’s a solid Senator who represents the interests of my state well. He’s a liberal for sure, but a reasonable one with significant bipartisan appeal (Hillary chose him as her running mate for a reason). He’s also running against a carpetbagger, faux-neo-Confederate windbag who has precisely zero exciting ideas, so that helps my case too. I’ll also cast a ballot for my incumbent Congressman, Democrat Don McEachin, who similarly reflects the interests of his district. He has admirably served Richmond, the city I love, for over two decades and has been particularly active on environmental issues during his first term in the House. If there’s one area where I’ll let a Dem be a Dem, that’s a winner.

Last of all, I’ll give you some fun races to watch on Tuesday that I’ll be paying particular attention to:

California’s 39^th: can a female Korean immigrant keep the LA suburbs in Republican hands?

Florida’s 27^th: what’s more important in Miami—being a Democrat or being able to speak Spanish?

Utah’s 4^th: why oh why do the Democrats always have a shot in this blood-red district?

Virginia’s 7^th: you think felons have it hard? Dave Brat has ads attacking him on TV!

Georgia Governor: is it time for America’s first black woman governor?

Wisconsin Governor: remember Scott Walker? Yeah, me neither!

Arizona Senate: will the Grand Canyon State elect its first woman senator? (Actually yes, both candidates are women.)

Florida Senate: I told you not to sleep on Rick Scott