Blue Wave: Point Break

Well, here we are folks. Usually, I have quite a bit more to say after an election than before one, and I suspect this year will certainly be no exception. Nevertheless, I’ve been thinking particularly hard about this one, and that’s really saying something. This election is, in many ways, an enigma. A sizable amount of uncertainty still lingers as we pull into the final straightaway. Will there be a Blue Wave? Will the Republicans hold the Senate? Are the polls accurate? Is that Republican from Virginia’s 5^th District really into Bigfoot porn? Is it weird that I’ve probably lost the most sleep over that last question? Let’s tackle some of this. I’ll be brief—I want to save up some of my election-analysis-babble for the days after this all goes down. But here’s where my thoughts have been the past few weeks: Yes, I think there will be a sizable (but not tsunami-like) Blue Wave. Yes, I think the Democrats will take the House. No, I think they have almost no shot at taking the Senate. And yes, I think the polls are generally accurate—insofar as most races will be decided within the polls’ margins of error.

Take a look at the RealClearPolitics House election page. You’ll see that, at its core, the race for the House is actually quite close. Adding up all the “safe,” “likely,” and “lean,” seats for each party only separates the Democrats from the GOP by 5 seats. It’s when you look at those tossups that it becomes clear why the Dems are the odds-on favorites to take over: 29 of those 32 seats are currently in Republican hands. (This is to say nothing of the fact that 10 of the 16 “lean” Dem seats are currently in Republican hands.) Of those 29 tossups, nine are open, meaning there is no incumbent. This is usually the first sign of a wave election—members of the majority party see the writing on the wall and decide it’s time to retire or abandon ship. Republicans had a whopping 26 such retirements this year, a total that rises to an astonishing 39 if you count every Republican who left their seat to run for another office. Compare this with only 18 open Democratic seats, and it’s obvious which party had a disadvantage out of the gate.

But why, you ask, can there still be so much uncertainty? Well, first of all, read this nice little blurb by my idol Sean Trende if you want the expert’s take. And I’ll shamelessly parrot some of his points here, too. Basically, at least as it pertains to House races, we’re looking at polls that come disproportionately from one source—The New York Times/Siena College partnership. Do I think their polls are high-quality? Without question, but that’s not really the point. Any pollster, however prescient and scientific they may be, is still guessing as to what the electorate that shows up to vote is going to look like. If most of the polls we refer to are making the same guess, and that guess turns out to be even a few percentage points off, then we end up getting the whole thing wrong. That’s why it’s always good to look at polls in the aggregate.

Still, to my mind, the question isn’t really if the Democrats will take the House. It’s just a matter of how large their majority is going to be. Give them half of those tossups, and they have a razor-thin majority. Give them all 32, and they have a comfortable one. My guess—this is me going on record—is that the Democrats will probably win around two-thirds of those tossups. Generally, in a wave or wave-like election, there is a late break toward the winning party by undecided and independent voters. I remember there being a similar amount of polling uncertainty going into the 2014 midterms, only for there to be a massive break toward the Republicans as they took the Senate and expanded their House majority. Look for a healthy—but, again, not quite tsunami-like—break toward the Dems this next Tuesday. Keep in mind, too, that when this kind of break happens, the effect will be seen across all races, meaning the tide could spill over into some of those “lean” and even “likely” Republican seats. If you want an example, those of you watching this election from Virginia like me should take a look at the races in the 5^th, 7^th, and 2^nd Districts. If the 5^th goes blue, it’s a definite blue ripple. If the 7^th flips, it’s a wave. And if the 2^nd switches hands, we’re in full-on bloodbath mode. (The 10^th is a foregone conclusion already.)

As for the Senate, the Democrats have almost no hope, in spite of the fact that they will probably flip a seat, or even two. Their problem is that the map is really skewed in the GOP’s favor. In fact, it may just be the most unfair Senate map of all time. The Republicans have just 9 seats to defend, only one of which is in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton, while the Democrats are playing defense across a staggering 24 seats, 10 of which are in states that voted for Trump. Talk about a handicap. I’d say given these conditions and the current state of the polls, the Republicans will probably end up with 52 or 53 seats when all is said and done. I actually think Kyrsten Sinema will pull off the major feat of becoming the first Democrat to represent Arizona in the Senate in 30 years, but it won’t matter when the GOP picks up seats in North Dakota (almost certain) and Missouri (call it a hunch). The only other pickup opportunity the Democrats have is Dean Heller, the lone blue state Republican in Nevada. Call me crazy, but I see him eking out a win a la 2012. And never, never sleep on Lex Luthor…I mean, Rick Scott.

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to think of it as 'world optimization'." - Lex Luthor

 I could give you another meaty paragraph about governor’s races, but I’m already approaching 1100 words so I’ll just say this: the Democrats will make some sizable gains here. This will especially come into play come 2020, when we have our next census and state legislatures start drawing new Congressional districts (this is actually quite important, so don’t think I’m throwing this away because it doesn’t matter).

And now, for my endorsements: I’ll be voting for Tim Kaine for Senate for the second time, which blows my mind. He’s a solid Senator who represents the interests of my state well. He’s a liberal for sure, but a reasonable one with significant bipartisan appeal (Hillary chose him as her running mate for a reason). He’s also running against a carpetbagger, faux-neo-Confederate windbag who has precisely zero exciting ideas, so that helps my case too. I’ll also cast a ballot for my incumbent Congressman, Democrat Don McEachin, who similarly reflects the interests of his district. He has admirably served Richmond, the city I love, for over two decades and has been particularly active on environmental issues during his first term in the House. If there’s one area where I’ll let a Dem be a Dem, that’s a winner.

Last of all, I’ll give you some fun races to watch on Tuesday that I’ll be paying particular attention to:

California’s 39^th: can a female Korean immigrant keep the LA suburbs in Republican hands?

Florida’s 27^th: what’s more important in Miami—being a Democrat or being able to speak Spanish?

Utah’s 4^th: why oh why do the Democrats always have a shot in this blood-red district?

Virginia’s 7^th: you think felons have it hard? Dave Brat has ads attacking him on TV!

Georgia Governor: is it time for America’s first black woman governor?

Wisconsin Governor: remember Scott Walker? Yeah, me neither!

Arizona Senate: will the Grand Canyon State elect its first woman senator? (Actually yes, both candidates are women.)

Florida Senate: I told you not to sleep on Rick Scott

Kavanaugh and the Death Knell of American Institutions

Hello, reader (or readers, if I’m being especially optimistic). This is usually the time and place where I would go through the ritualistic motions of acknowledging that I haven’t written anything in a very long time, blame it on the toxic nature of our current political climate, and throw out some nasty adjectives to describe our president. I won’t bother you with that today; I’ve done it enough times and I’m quite sure anyone who knows me or has read any of my past missives knows exactly where I stand on contemporary American politics. So let’s just get to the point.

I’m pretty sure the United States Senate died this week. Mind you, what was once known as “The World’s Greatest Deliberative Body” had been on life support since at least 2013, when then-Majority Leader Harry Reid invoked the “nuclear option” to allow most executive branch nominees to be confirmed with a simple majority vote. But things have gone uniformly downhill from there, with the Merrick Garland stonewalling followed by current Majority Leader Mitch McConnell extending the nuclear option to Supreme Court nominees last year and now this.

You know what I’m talking about—the Kavanaugh Debacle. From Cory Booker’s “I am Spartacus” moment to Lindsey Graham’s Tyra-Banks-level screed, the confirmation hearings for retired Justice Anthony Kennedy’s replacement have been an epic display of partisan meltdown. We all already hate each other so much, and the raw tribalism fueling that hate has now spread, virus-like, across our entire federal government. First it was the House, then the Presidency, and now—thanks to Brett Kavanaugh and the Beach Week Ralph Club—it has reached the Senate, and through it, the Supreme Court. By my count, that leaves us with exactly zero governing institutions free of partisan taint. This is bad, folks. This is really bad.

I’d really rather not wade too deep into the matter of the accusations surrounding Judge Kavanaugh. In our current state of play, it’s more than a little tricky for a straight, white male to offer any kind of opinion on sexual assault without getting into some kind of trouble. This is especially true if what I have to say is something other than unequivocally believing Dr. Ford and categorically dismissing Judge Kavanaugh as a boorish, lying rapist. (Or, alternatively, I risk being branded a coward by the other side if I give Dr. Ford even one inch.) That, in and of itself, is a problem—and yet another symptom of our hyper-divided polity. As with everything else, essentially no room has been left for middle ground here, which is particularly troubling considering we are talking about an event that happened 35 years ago with almost no way to know definitively what actually occurred. So let me ask just this one question: is it really so bad that I believe that both Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh told the truth last week? Is it really impossible that Dr. Ford was sexually assaulted and remembers it vividly while her assailant was so drunk—or the event so insignificant in his adolescent eyes—that he doesn’t have any recollection of it whatsoever? Because I watched both her testimony and his and that’s what I saw.

I reject this kind of unconstructive and harmfully dichotomous reasoning (if it can even rightfully be called that). I don’t have to choose between a Christine Blasey Ford who is a paid agent of Democratic sabotage and a Brett Kavanaugh who is a calculated, professional perjurer. I do, however, agree with Ross Douthat and Frank Bruni at the New York Times that our country and our institutions would be best served if Judge Kavanaugh were removed from consideration, regardless of what happened that night three and a half decades ago. We deserve—no, we desperately need—to confirm a Supreme Court Justice who is at least seen as legitimate (if not necessarily agreeable) by both sides. And let’s be clear—these accusations have rendered Judge Kavanaugh illegitimate and his fiery, partisan testimony has disqualified him for this position. Of course, with Senators Collins and Manchin announcing yesterday that they will vote “yes” on Kavanaugh, his ascension to the high court seems all but assured. And that’s a damn shame, because now we’ll have a forever tainted Justice on our Supreme Court, one who could trigger a culture war Armageddon if he goes anywhere near Roe v. Wade.

So yes, I believe this represents the simultaneous death knell of the Senate and the Supreme Court. Whose fault is it? There’s plenty of blame to go around. As I mentioned earlier, Harry Reid got this train rolling (or, really, Bill Frist did when he first raised the specter of the nuclear option back in 2005). Mitch McConnell did nothing to help with his audacious roll of the dice on Merrick Garland and, later, Neil Gorsuch. And now we have Dianne Feinstein entering the fray with a nasty, below-the-belt blow of her own. Yes, as I’ve said, I find Dr. Ford to be a credible witness and I believe every word she said, but I don’t think I will ever be convinced that the timing of Senator Feinstein’s release of the allegations was anything other than sheer political calculation. She held onto that letter from Dr. Ford for weeks, only to make its contents known at precisely the moment at which Republicans would be unable to withdraw Kavanaugh from consideration and put forward another nominee before the midterm elections. It looks dirty, underhanded, and quite frankly horribly disrespectful toward Dr. Ford. Did the Republicans deserve it after what they did to Merrick Garland? Probably. But the Senate is supposed to be above that kind of eye-for-an-eye pettiness and Senator Feinstein should be ashamed for handling a woman’s courageous account of sexual assault the way she did, whatever her reasons were.

But, if I’m being perfectly honest, I’m having a great deal of trouble working myself up into my usual “the Democrats have been no better than the Republicans in the way they’ve handled this” fervor. I’m just so tired of all of this—the anger, the vitriol, the Facebook newsfeed littered with arguments and memes spreading misinformation to literally thousands of people at a time. And I hate that our governing institutions have sunk to that same low. If we can’t respect each other and we can’t trust the governing institutions that have kept our country standing for nearly two and a half centuries, then what’s left? I don’t know, but I do know that when Brett Kavanaugh gets confirmed later today, it’ll only make things worse.

Well, that’s it for today’s uplifting rhetoric. Here are a couple of quality links if you want some further reading on Kavanaugh: from Rod Dreher at The American Conservative; Caitlin Flanagan at The Atlantic; and the aforementioned conversation between Ross Douthat and Frank Bruni at The New York Times. And let’s not forget my good friend CJ Bergin’s sober analysis via viral Facebook post.

Stay tuned for my next post (yes, I’m actually planning another one) in which I endorse a couple Democrats (gasp!) and talk about the forthcoming electoral bloodbath next month.